The Complexities of Climate Change: ongoing studies to determine mankind's impact

The complexity of global warming and its effects are highlighted in journal articles cited by SeaWeb in its latest Marine Science Review (issue #359). The challenge to scientists in determining the long-term effects is how best to correlate a myriad of artificially introduced components that can either increase or even decrease atmospheric and ocean temperatures.

A study in Nature Geoscience examines the complexities behind the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which begins in the tropical Pacific but whose effects extend worldwide. Predicting the frequency and extant of this oscillation has been a challenge even in the best (aka "al naturale") of circumstances. By interjecting man-made factors, the predictability becomes even more difficult. But it is clear that a strong ENSO raises temperatures along the equator, changing wind patterns that impact temperature gradients between surface and deep water layers both at the equator and beyond.

Another study in Nature Geoscience examined issues related to atmospheric aerosols - particles and gases in the atmosphere that have the ability to actually lower temperatures (an extreme example of this would be the extended "winter" that doomed the dinosaurs brought on by ejecta from a meteorite impact). With man-made pollutants, like smog, sometimes both effects - heating and cooling - are at work due to the nature of what is being thrown into the air. This can make it challenging for scientists to determine the end net result and for those who have proposed the use of man-made atmospheric aerosols to moderate temperature, called radiation management, the results are questionable. One fact is known: atmospheric aerosols ultimately weaken the ozone layer, as we had over the Arctic, which increases temperatures.

There were two studies in Toxicon that examined the increase of Ciguatera, a fish poisoning that occurs with the ingestion of algal toxins. As it works its way up the food chain, the effect accumulates and becomes magnified. Human consumption of infected fish can produce some nasty gastrointestinal and even neurological effects. One study, focused on the Caribbean, and showed that the incidence of ciguatera was highest where high and relatively consistent sea surface temperatures (SST) occurred. In contrast, another study in the South Pacific showed that there is a temperature threshold over which ciguatera prevalence is dampened, but determining where and when this dampening effect occurs is challenging due to the oscillation of ocean currents in the area.

And lastly, a study in Climate Policy reminded us all of where the impacts of climate change will fall on human populations. Equatorial, developing countries - in Africa, the Indian subcontinent, Latin America, and small island states - will feel the greatest effects, affecting subsistence-level economies. And this will have to be taken into consideration when establishing international policies. The industrial world, existing in colder latitudes, has produced over 66% of the global greenhouse gases, but its equatorial neighbors will experience over 75% of the effects within this century.

Climate ecology, like many of the natural forces from evolution to the birth of the universe, is an incredibly complex system unto itself. This makes the study and outcomes of man-made intrusions a very difficult one to forecast. But there is no doubt that mankind is having an impact. I receive 20 to 30 summaries on climate change studies each month from SeaWeb - the data is there, the research is ongoing, and the reality of climate change should be a worldwide concern.

Nature Crimes: professor looks at how conservation can go wrong

Now here is a different spin on current conservation strategies, one that takes a skeptical look at the overall approach taken by many western-style societies when it comes to implementing animal reserves and ecotourism operations. It may not be a perspective that you agree with (it made me squirm in my seat to read it), but as we move forward in our efforts to conserve animals and natural resources worldwide, it's worth considering so that we can best insure that we're on a fair course.

As reported in The Guardian, in the new book Nature Crime: How We're Getting Conservation Wrong, author and professor of international politics Rosaleen Duffy declares that, in many developing countries where endangered species or habitats exist, conservation efforts often penalize or even criminalize large segments of a population which can threaten their very existence. According to Duffy (who supports the need for animal and habitat protection), this can cause bigger long-term problems in keeping these disenfranchised groups in step with the program.

The Guardian reports, "When wildlife reserves are established, Duffy says, local communities can suddenly find that their everyday subsistence activities, such as hunting and collecting wood, have been outlawed.

At the same time, well-intentioned attempts to protect the habitats of animal species on the edge of extinction lead to the creation of wild, 'people-free' areas. This approach has led to the displacement of millions of people across the world.

'Conservation does not constitute neat win-win scenarios. Schemes come with rules and regulations that criminalize communities, dressed up in the language of partnership and participation, coupled with promises of new jobs in the tourism industry.'"

Ecotourism is another area in which Duffy is critical. Developing ecotourism in areas with the promise of increased tourism and jobs, can in the end prove counterproductive when there is hotel development to support the tourism, work done to provide tourists with a "clean" experience (pristine white beaches, etc.), but a populace that does not fully benefit from the limited number of jobs that ecotourism can sometimes generate.

"'Holiday makers are mostly unaware of how their tourist paradises have been produced,' she says. 'They assume that the picture-perfect landscape or the silver Caribbean beach is a natural feature. This is very far from the truth. Tourist playgrounds are manufactured environments, usually cleared of people. Similarly, hotel construction in tropical areas can result in clearing ecologically important mangroves or beach building which harms coral reefs.'"

Duffy's thesis is that many conservation strategies are too optimistic and there certainly have been instances where the end results were not as anticipated for both, the environment and the community. So, I personally take what she says as more of a warning rather than an across-the-board indictment. Government, non-profit, and commercial organizations involved in conservation efforts - from reserves and protected areas to ecotourism - must be cognizant of how their efforts might inadvertently penalize subsistence-level groups which, in the long run, can undermine the success of the strategy. It's a challenge getting the balance just right between the interests of all.

The article is thought-provoking as I found myself both initially disagreeing with her position and yet taking stock of many conservation programs, checking to see if there could be roadblocks to their success down the road. I may even read her complete book, just to make sure I'm on my toes when it comes to analyzing and supporting the best conservation efforts.

Read the article in The Guardian.
Buy the book at Amazon.