Arctic Sea Ice: researchers prepare to monitor 2010 summer levels

We're in June now, so it's time to dig out the sun tan lotion and down parkas, right? What, no? Well, as described by ScienceNews, "While most folks are breaking out their shorts and swimsuits for a summer of play, some researchers are packing warm-weather gear for a much colder trip — to Arctic ice."

This is the time of year when Arctic researchers prepare to monitor and measure the summer sea ice, which has been in steady decline for several decades. Scientists generally agree that climate change, in the form of increasing temperatures in both the air and water, is slowly depleting the Arctic region of its year-round sheet of sea ice. The sea ice is an undulating mass that grows in the winter and shrinks in the summer, but overall, the sea ice is shrinking. The white ice normally reflects sunlight but with an increase in overall temperatures, the ice melts and exposes more dark sea water, which absorbs heat. This "feedback loop" aggravates and accelerates the problem.

In 2007, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center recorded the lowest level of summer sea ice in recorded history. But on a year-by-year basis trends can sometimes be difficult to detect. In the subsequent 2 years, late summer weather changes produced more sea ice than the record low of 2007. But each year has still been below the mean average and the trend is still moving downward.

According to SEARCH (Study of Environmental Arctic Change), "In fall of 2009, the area of second-year sea ice [ice that has remained from one season to the next] has increased relative to 2007 and 2008. However, the arctic ice pack remains substantially younger, thinner, and more mobile than prior to 2005. The long-term trend in summer sea ice extent is still downward. Furthermore, the rate of refreezing at the end of October is less than in 2007."

As of right now, the sea ice level for May was close to the lowest ever recorded for that time of year. But scientists will be monitoring it closely and if any months experience an extended cold snap, the summer sea ice could put up a fight to stay around.

But the big picture still remains unchanged - a steady decline that is a "canary in the coalmine" indication that climate change is real and has been unusually rapid - more so than can be attributed to a natural cyclical pattern.

Read ScienceNews article.

Arctic Ocean Ice: New report confirms rapid melting

A new report released today by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the UK-based Catlin Arctic Survey confirms what many other studies and research projects have been saying: the Arctic is melting faster than previously predicted.

In this report, Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications (you can download the executive summary or the entire report), it was determined that the Arctic Ocean will be mostly ice-free during the summer within a decade and totally devoid of summer ice within 20 years. Research has found that much of the ice is now comprised of "first year ice" - new ice as opposed to older ice that would typically form a year-round foundation. Measurements also showed the ice to be thinner and not sufficient to survive next summer's ice melt.

It's not just warmer temperatures that is causing this increasing meltdown. The Arctic ice reflects sunlight but as it melts and darker ocean surfaces are exposed, a feedback effect occurs wherein the exposed ocean retains more heat, which melts more ice, which exposes more ocean, and so on.

There is also a considerable amount of CO2 held within the ice that is then released, along with CO2 and methane that is released from the Arctic's permafrost, the land's frozen layer of topsoil. All this adds to and accelerates the effects. These are some of the variables that have skewed prior computer models, contributing to a string of revised estimates.

All of this has impacts on the lower latitudes with altered weather patterns due to changes in temperature gradients both in the ocean and in the atmosphere. Further on, there would be the impact on sea levels that result from melted ice not only in the polar Arctic but in areas such as Greenland. So, we're not immune to the effects of losing Arctic sea ice.

Working with InMER.org, I had the opportunity to explore some of the Arctic region in an area known as the Northwest Passage. The InMER team documented changes that were occurring, from reduced sea ice levels to anecdotal evidence from Inuit Indian leaders and government officials. Several clips that reflect the results of the expedition can be found in Google Earth in the ocean areas of northern Canada. Here's one:

Bycatch, Arctic Ice, Methlymercury: still issues to keep an eye on

Seaweb.org recently released some interesting ocean conservation news - a bit of a mixed bag really.

The U.S. has been making some marked improvement in regulating the level of bycatch by commercial fishing operations. Bycatch is a critical issue in ocean conservation as it represents millions of tons of wasted sealife, from the loss of marine mammals, sharks, and turtles in longline nets to the "scorched earth" effect exhibited in shrimp harvesting techniques. Through the application of four different regulatory laws or agencies (the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, the Marine Mammal Protection Act, the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, and the Endangered Species Act), the level of bycatch is being federally monitored and managed through the use of government observers.

One major issue though is the problem of having four different pieces of regulatory legislation, each with its own focus or emphasis on a particular situation or species. Involving this many cooks makes it difficult to get a more unifying and holistic approach to the entire issue. A recent report issued by Duke University's Marine Laboratory cited an approach by NOAA to establish a single set of regulations in 2006 for the Mid-Atlantic gillnet fisheries that proved to be a promising model and suggests that a review of existing regulations to develop a more cohesive strategy should be undertaken.

I had the opportunity to fly over the Northwest Passage in 2007 and see for myself the shrinking summer sea ice that had reached its lowest level in recorded history that year. As one could expect, there was a lot of alarming news coverage predicting an ice-free Northwest Passage within a few decades. Many computer models predicted the Arctic would lose its summer sea ice by 2080. But according to research by UCLA's Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Department, many of those models relied on ice data that reflected a gradual decline, but did not include the data from recent ice levels.

With the growing awareness of the feedback effect of melting ice (exposing more heat-absorbing ocean to sunlight, thereby accelerating the melting process), the department's revised computer models move the clock forward by almost 20 years wherein we will be faced with an Arctic region devoid of most, if not all of its, summer sea ice - a monumental ringing of the alarm bell that global warming is now upon us.

Methylmercury - that dangerous party favor that lies within much of the seafood we consume - must share its host fish with the more beneficial omega-3 fatty acids. Can a risk/benefit analysis determine which seafood would be more or less safe depending on species and frequency of consumption? This was the question that was studied recently and reported in Environmental Health Perspectives. The results of the study were not definitive but suggested that such a matrix could be developed. The report noted that farmed salmon, herring, and trout had a significant higher benefit vs. risk based on levels of methylmercury and omega-3 fatty acids. The opposite was true for swordfish and shark. Flounder and canned light tuna had a small benefit, while canned white tuna and halibut had a small risk.

While the elimination of all methylmercury should be our ongoing focus, such a risk/benefit analysis matrix would be helpful in dealing with current seafood stocks, since methylymercury is retained in the tissues and would be present in many species for some time in the future.

The Arctic Continues To Melt: AMAP report confirms rapid advance

The latest report from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) confirms what other scientific agencies have been saying, that the Arctic ice is melting at a rate faster than previously thought. Previous scientific models are not keeping up with the rapid changes taking place due to the feedback effect (when warmer temperatures melt ice that exposes dark water which absorbs sunlight and therefore warms the water even more), complicated by the influx of warmer water currents as climate change begins to impact the temperature/current relationships in the oceans.

I had the opportunity to see and film firsthand the 2007 summer sea ice that had reached its lowest level that year in recorded history. It was impressive to see until you realized that the ice floes and floating shards were supposed to be one solid sheet of impenetrable ice. The following year, even with a cooler spring, produced the second lowest level.



The AMAP report, Update on Selected Climate Issues of Concern, noted the need for improved models (a subject I mentioned in an earlier posting) to determine the long-term impact of negative and potential positive effects. As an example, will the newly exposed seas increase plankton growth which can absorb more carbon (a positive) be offset by the loss of marine life, including plankton, due to the influx of more fresh water from melting ice (a negative) or vice-versa?

One thing is certain: whether you watch the summer ice in the Northwest Passage or the reduction of ice in Greenland, climate change is a real growing threat and must be addressed. Nature won't wait while the decision-makers muddle it over.

Filmmaker's Journal: summer sea ice above the Arctic Circle

I had the pleasure and thrill of traveling above the Arctic Circle to the area known as the Northwest Passage. Working for the research organization InMER, I was tasked with documenting evidence of climate change through interviews with Inuit indian tribal elders and government officials, in addition to capturing images of the flora and fauna.

Flying from one location to another, we came across a vast field of sea ice - the very stuff that provides a floating base for animals like polar bears, penguins, and even seals. My first impression was that the ice was solid and impenetrable. But soon I could see that it was like a vast expanse of shattered glass.

At that very same moment, we learned that the summer ice levels had reached their lowest in recorded history. This made for a very sobering moment. Here I was, looking down on clear cut evidence of climate change, on a landscape as fragile as any you could imagine. With the loss of more and more sea ice, the opening of the Northwest Passage to commercial shipping traffic becomes an increasing reality. That spells serious environmental concerns for the region, not to mention what it says about the worldwide impact of climate change.

Here is a video that I put together for InMER that has been included in the new ocean layer of Google Earth (courtesy of InMER.org). Check it out and check out the new Google Earth!



Some of the footage I shot for InMER was also used in a segment of National Geographic Wild Chronicles series on PBS. The more that people learn about what is happening to our climate, hopefully the more we can do to improve the situation.

Arctic Summer Sea Ice 2008: Update

On August 6th, I posted a a status report on summer sea ice conditions in the Arctic and the possibility that it might be better than last year's all-time record low. Here's an update from the Associated Press:

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is at its second lowest level in nearly 30 years and with three weeks left in the Arctic summer, this year could wind up breaking last September's all-time record. Arctic ice melts in the summer and refreezes in the winter but more and more ice is being lost to the sea and not recovered in the winter. Ice reflects the sun's heat while the open ocean absorbs more heat and the melting accelerates warming in other parts of the world.

"We could very well be in that quick slide downward in terms of passing a tipping point," said senior scientist Mark Serreze at the data center. The melting causes "Arctic amplification" where the warming up north is increased in a feedback mechanism and the effects spill southward in the autumn as more warm water releases more heat into the air, making the atmosphere warmer than normal. "Climate warming is coming larger and faster than the models are predicting," Serreze said.

The condition of the Arctic Circle is a perfect barometer for what lies ahead in southern climates. We must pay attention.

Arctic Summer Ice Conditions - 2008

It was almost a year ago when I had the opportunity to be part of InMER's reconnaissance expedition of the Northwest Passage above the Arctic Circle. As we were completing our route, word came from the National Snow and Ice Data Center that the summer ice was at its lowest level ever recorded. The possibility that - sooner than predicted - the Northwest Passage would be completely open during the summer months, became an important issue because of what that meant for global warming and, conversely, what it meant for potential global shipping by providing a much shorter transoceanic route (See InMER/National Geographic video).

This year, it is anticipated that the summer ice melt won't exceed last year's record due to cooler temperatures in July. But overall, Arctic ice has continued to recede and is much thinner, making it more sensitive to fluctuations in temperature. Commercial interests, due to rising fuel prices and food demands, will put considerable pressure on the region. On the upside, some action is being taken to regulate the potential for expanded industrial fishing in the Arctic regions (Oceana.org press release).

The Arctic is the 800-pound canary in the room. Not only is its condition simply a warning as to what can happen in greater force in the lower latitudes, but the effect of climate change on the tundra - the scrappy landscape that covers the permafrost or frozen ground underneath - in the form of increased bacteria, encroachment by invasive flora, and the release of CO2 and methane, can have additional impact globally.

The Arctic region make look rugged and impenetrable but, in reality, it is extremely fragile. Learn more at InMER.org and Oceana.org.

RTSea & InMER explores the Arctic Circle

On 08/29/07, RTSea wrote: I just returned last week from a film assignment in the Northwest Passage, above the Arctic Circle, documenting the effects of climate change on the environment and Inuit culture there. The organization sponsoring the expedition was InMER (Integrated Marine Education and Research), a non-profit group dedicated to public awareness of key environmental issues. They have an ambitious project through 2010 to research and document climate change in this vital region and communicate their findings to both decision-makers and the general public through an arsenal of communication channels and formats. You can learn more at www.inmer.org.

The Arctic is an incredible ecological system. My first impression was one of a stark, bleak environment, seemingly impenetrable and impervious. But as I complied more and more images - from muskox to tundra moss to summer sea ice, from interviews with Inuit elders to government officials - I began to realize how fragile this ecosystem is in reality. And, like its southern cousin, the Antarctic, it serves as a barometer for worldwide change and a tripwire to warn us as to our future if we do not take steps to reverse the man-made effects on our climate. The earth's poles are trying to speak to us . . . and we must listen.

Addendum: The National Snow and Ice Data Center has reported that the 2007 summer ice field has been the smallest on record and many scientific agencies are saying that the arctic ice is melting in excess of predicted models. The impact on the Northwest Passage - it's people, wildlife, and ecosystem may arrive sooner than expected. See pictures and video of this year's summer ice by going to the Media Library and typing in "Northwest" or "ice".